Before this week’s readings, when I thought of the
butterfly effect one of two things would immediately come to mind. First, would
be the movie starring Ashton Kutcher that shares the name of the theory. In
this movie, Ashton Kutcher discovered he had the ability to go back in time and
change moments from his past. What started out as a relief quickly became
disastrous as each time he went back in his past to fix a situation for himself
or one of his friends, he ended up making something else worse. At one point,
he goes back in time to stop his friend from blowing up a mailbox with a cherry
bomb, because after the friend was caught, he began to live a very troubled
life. When Ashton wakes up from stopping the explosion, he finds himself
missing his legs which were lost during the mishap. Aston learns that no matter
what he does to correct instances in the past the future is affected by the
altered actions.
The second thing that usually comes to mind when I
hear the term butterfly effect is any movie or TV show where the characters go
back in time. The number one rule is never to disturb the past because it will
have an adverse effect on the future. After the readings this week, I
understand that the movie was more than likely named for the theory developed
by Edward Lorenz (Lorenz strange attractors), or more commonly known as the
butterfly effect. The discovery made by Lorenz was an accident. In trying to
study a previously run weather simulation, he left off a couple of digits in numbers
containing lengthy decimal points while entering the beginning parameters
(Obolensky, 2014).
What he thought was an insignificant change in the starting
parameters produced, at first a minor, and then a colossal change in the ending
numbers. Lorenz then wanted to determine why a small change could have such a
large effect and discovered that even complex systems that seem chaotic have a
core pattern. “When a situation has a
great sensitivity to initial conditions, a small change can have a
disproportionate effect” (Obolensky, 2014, p. 70). In other words, in an
organization, a small change can have a massive effect on the company.
As I contemplated complexity science and the
butterfly effect this week, I wondered if a small change has ever yielded large
results for my organization. I thought about many examples and would like to
discuss two in this post. With our previous computer system, when a check was
voided and purged the check numbers had to be adjusted to mirror the changes.
Why is that piece of information important? Because the implications that would
occur if the checks numbers are not corrected could be catastrophic.
Several years ago, on a Friday morning, hundreds of
student checks were administered for returns and scholarships. This was a
seemingly fluid and easy process, but the individual who processed the checks
was unaware that a check was previously voided and the check numbers remained
unadjusted. By Wednesday of the next
week, the finance department received a call from the bank stating that several
checks were numbered incorrectly and therefore must be voided. Several was a
very generous phrase as there were much more than “several checks.” Because
most of the students had already picked up their checks, chaos ensued. The
department had to reach out to the students to let them know about the mistake.
Though it was the fault of my department, some
students were purged from their classes because the money they received was to
be used to pay for their classes, which represented a lack of communication by
the departments of the college, but that is a different subject for a different
blog. There were even a couple of students that stated that their bank allowed
the check to be deposited, only later to realize that the check was voided and
the funds were then debited out of their bank account. In the end, the checks
were re-issued, all the students were placed back into their classes, and the
department learned a very important lesson about the check process.
The implication of complexity theory was visible in
this example. This small change caused a
large ripple that created work for the bank, the accounting department, and
student accounts. The department learned
the chaotic result and process that can result from one small change.
Improvements were created from this example. A checks and balances system was generated
where another employee must verify and sign off that the check numbers are
correct before they are delivered to student accounts to be mailed out to the recipient.
I recall another instance where transposed numbers
almost caused a group of music students to have to cancel a trip to Nashville. The
college has several hundred cost centers and each center is managed by a cost
center manager. For big ticket items, the cost center manager will request the
funds to be placed in their budget at the beginning of the fiscal year, and the
Vice Presidents would approve. The trip was approved and the funds were placed
in the budget for that particular cost center. The problem began when the cost
center manager sent the request to accounts payable to pay for the chartered
flight. This individual accidentally transposed the numbers in the cost center.
When accounts payable tried to pay the invoice a budget error occurred explaining
that no budget existed, leading accounts payable sent the invoice back cost center
manager saying that there was no budget.
The ping-pong match then began with one individual saying
that the trip was approved and the other individual saying that the cost center
did not have the budget to pay the invoice. Because things used to move slowly around
the college, and an attempt to pay the invoice was not made until the due date,
the airline canceled the chartered flight due to an unpaid invoice and alerted the
cost center manager, which did not go over well. The final result comprised of
a check being cut quickly, once the error was discovered, and mailed overnight to
the company. Like my first example, lessons were learned. The cost center
manager learned to be more careful and timely when filling out check request
and accounts payable learned to pick up the phone and call if they notice an
invoice may be late, instead of sending the invoice back through the college
mail system. This example also illustrates how a small change or mistake can
create a large wave in an organization.
A leader or organization will never know exactly what
is around the next corner. Complexity
theory explains that no matter how prepared you are a small change can alter
the destiny of a project. Therefore, a leader must be aware of how everything
fits together in the big picture, because when dealing with the butterfly
effect everything matters. “Even studying the small things can tell you about
the complexity of the real world” (Onion, 2016, para. 19).
References
Obolensky, N. (2014). Complex adaptive leadership: Embracing paradox and uncertainty (2nd ed.). Gower.
Onion, A. (2016). Science behind the butterfly effect. Retrieved from
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=99596&page=1
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